Fair Isaac stock price continued its downward spiral this week, reaching its lowest level since July 2023. FICO fell to $772 in extended hours, and is down by 67% from its highest point in 2025, making it one of the top laggards in the S&P 500 Index this year. This retreat coincided with a major change that will lead to more competition in credit scoring.
Fair Isaac stock freefall is gaining momentum
FICO stock has been in a strong sell-off this year, a trend that accelerated this week when the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced structural changes to mortgage pricing that will lead to more competition to its longstanding credit scoring business.
The change means that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now consolidate their pricing metrics into a single, unified grid. As a result, the process will incorporate VantageScore, which Bill Pulte promoted on X.
These changes could have a major impact on Fair Isaac, which has always been the only score that the two mortgage giants accept. It means that FICO will now be forced to slash prices. Also, it will limit its ability to increase prices in the future.
Historically, however, initial reactions to major news events like this tends to be brief as investors usually overreact.
Analysts have slashed FICO stock forecasts lately
The new announcement came at a time when investors have slashed their outlook for the stock. Jason Haas, a Wells Fargo analyst, slashed his target from $1,450 to $1,350, while UBS’s Kevin MacVeigh reduced to $1,130 from the previous $1,200.
Other analysts who have pared back their targets are from companies like Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Bank of America, and JPMorgan. Most of these analysts have pointed to the rising competition and its valuation.
The most recent results showed that FICO’s revenue rose to $674 million in the second quarter from $536 million in the same period last year. Its nine-month revenue rose to $1.87 billion from $1.47 billion.
The same revenue growth was coincided with its profitability growth. Its net profit rose to over $236 million from $194 million last year.
Yahoo Finance data shows that its annual revenue will jump by 27.7% this year to $2.54 billion, followed by $2.89 billion next year. It is unclear how the recent announcement from FHFA will affect its growth.
Another positive is that the company has become fairly valued, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20 being lower than the five-year average of 43.
FICO stock price technical analysis
The weekly chart shows that FICO shares have plunged in the past few years. It has plunged from a record high of $2,400 in November last year to the current $792.
The stock has dropped below the important support level of $876, its lowest level on April 20th, invalidating the double-bottom pattern. Worse, the stock has now formed a death cross pattern, which is made up of a bearish crossover of the 50-week and 200-week moving averages.
The stock has formed a series of lower lows and lower highs. This pattern is usually highly bearish. Also, it has slumped below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the path of the least resistance is downwards, with the next key target being the psychological level of $600.
